The hydrometeorology of the Amazon basin and its global teleconnections
Avissar, Duke University, email@example.com
da Silva, University of Sao Paulo, firstname.lastname@example.org
Werth, Duke University, email@example.com
Hasler, Duke University, firstname.lastname@example.org
Regional and global climate models are used in conjunction with socio-economic scenarios of land use / land-cover change in the Amazon basin, to estimate potential changes in the water cycle inside and outside of the basin. Four ensembles of six realizations, twelve years each, are produced with the NASA-GISS Global Climate Model (GCM): (1) a “current land cover” ensemble, which also serves as the “control” ensemble; (2) a “scenario for 2030” ensemble; (3) a “scenario for 2050” ensemble; and (4) a “total deforestation” ensemble that simulates the land cover in the Amazon basin after all the tropical forest has been eliminated. The same experiments were reproduced with the NCAR and with the GISS AM global climate models to produce a “superensemble.” In addition, The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used at a high resolution (20 km grid size) and very-high resolution (1 km grid size) over the Amazon Basin and using the same four land-cover scenarios but with the NCEP reanalysis for four different years (wet - 1997, dry - 1998, and two “normal” years - 1999 and 2000 that have similar domain-average precipitation but different spatial distributions) forcing its lateral boundaries. Thus, the combined impacts of deforestation and El Nino and La Nina years are also explored as part of this numerical experiment. The combination of these different simulations reveals significant impact of deforestation on the regional and global hydroclimate.