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CD-05 Abstract

Amazon Scenarios: Modeling Interactions Among Land Use, Fire, and Climate

Carlos Augusto Klink — UnB - Universidade de Brasília (SA-PI)
Paulo Moutinho — IPAM - Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (SA-PI)
Daniel Nepstad — Woods Hole Research Center (US-PI)

Amazonia has entered an era of rapid change as new transportation corridors

traverse the region, stimulating the expansion of logging and agricultural

frontiers. This large experiment in infra-structure investments presents

an important scientific challenge to the LBA community?to simulate the effects

of transportation infra-structure on regional patterns of land-use change and

carbon emission. In this second phase of our LBA grant we propose to

develop and refine a process-based model of ecosystem productivity and fire

probability and economic models of agriculture and forestry that begin to

address this challenge. These models will be coupled within a

Pan-Amazonian GIS, and will be responsive to plausible policy scenarios, as

model inputs. Model outputs will include spatially-explicit simulations of

future land uses, fire regime, and associated carbon emissions. The

interaction between land cover and regional climate will be investigated using

both a meso-scale climate model (RAMS) and a global circulation model (COLA/CPTEC).

We will help reduce the considerable uncertainty about areas of logging and

understory fire in Amazonia by geo-referencing, through fieldwork, the

perimeters of logging and forest fire scars in each of five ?reference

landscapes?. Vegetation structure and biomass will be measured within a

subsample of patches in each landscape. We will also establish a

prescribed burn experiment in the Amazon-Cerrado transition forest of Mato

Grosso. The proposed research will also be supported by datasets being

collected at our ongoing rainfall exclusion experiments in Amazonia and the

Cerrado (LC-14), and by measurements of sub-soil controls on the ecological

dynamics of forest-savanna ecotones.

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