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LC-10 Abstract

Measurement and Modeling of the Inter-Annual Dynamics of Deforestation and Regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use Control on the Annual Net Flux of Carbon

Marcos A. Pedlowski — UENF/CCH/LEEA (SA-PI)
David Lewis Skole — Michigan State University (US-PI)


This proposal seeks to understand the inter-annual variability in deforestation and

abandonment rates in the Brazilian Amazon region. We propose six Tasks, which integrate

satellite remote sensing measurements at basin, and site scales field-based case studies

at the farm and household scale, and models. We propose to couple our results with other

projects and studies under LBA, providing data and models on deforestation rates, its

spatial pattern, and re-growth. We pose two questions:

1. Are the inter-annual dynamics and rates of deforestation and abandonment to

secondary forest significantly different than the decadal mean values in Amazonia, and can

this account for a dampening of the biogenic source of carbon apparent in annual

observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen?

2. Through the integration of socioeconomic and satellite data and the development of

dynamic deforestation models, can we improve our understanding of the dynamics of

deforestation and the various controls on rates of deforestation and re-growth?

To answer these questions we will measure inter-annual rates of deforestation and

re-growth for the whole basin using stratified sampling methods with Landsat data. We then

establish intensive case studies using multi-temporal (annual) satellite data at specific

sites to estimate transition dynamics and transition probabilities for secondary growth

turnover in simple LUCC models. Finally we Conduct field-based case study analyses of the

decision-making processes for farmers and other land-managers, using key informant surveys

and models. This is new work, not currently funded by another source, but we collaborate

with other funded projects to meet our objectives.

Research Team Responsibilities

  • David L. Skole: Lead the entire investigation

  • Robert T. Walker: Process-level controls on deforestation and re-growth due to land

    management/use at field and household level

  • Marcos Pedloski: In-country coordination

  • Charles H. Wood: Collaborator under Walker

  • William A. Salas: Case Studies of annual dynamics of deforestation and re-growth

Last Updated: October 1998

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