LC-10 Group Augmented Abstract

Pattern to Process in Amaz˘nia: Measurement and Modeling of the Inter-Annual Dynamics of Deforestation and Regrowth

David Lewis Skole -- Department of Geography, Michigan State University
Marcos A. Pedloski --  Univiversity Estadual do Norte Fluminense (UENF)/CCH/LEEA


This proposal seeks to understand the inter-annual variability in deforestation and abandonment rates in the Brazilian Amazon region. We propose six Tasks, which integrate satellite remote sensing measurements at basin, and site scales field-based case studies at the farm and household scale, and models. We propose to couple our results with other projects and studies under LBA, providing data and models on deforestation rates, its spatial pattern, and re-growth. We pose two questions:

1. Are the inter-annual dynamics and rates of deforestation and abandonment to secondary forest significantly different than the decadal mean values in Amazonia, and can this account for a dampening of the biogenic source of carbon apparent in annual observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen?
2. Through the integration of socioeconomic and satellite data and the development of dynamic deforestation models, can we improve our understanding of the dynamics of deforestation and the various controls on rates of deforestation and re-growth?

To answer these questions we will measure inter-annual rates of deforestation and re-growth for the whole basin using stratified sampling methods with Landsat data. We then establish intensive case studies using multi-temporal (annual) satellite data at specific sites to estimate transition dynamics and transition probabilities for secondary growth turnover in simple LUCC models. Finally we Conduct field-based case study analyses of the decision-making processes for farmers and other land-managers, using key informant surveys and models. This is new work, not currently funded by another source, but we collaborate with other funded projects to meet our objectives.

Research Team Responsibilities

Last Updated: October 1998