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SimAmazonia-2, a basin-wide simulation model of Amazon landscape dynamics

Hermann Rodrigues, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, hermann@csr.ufmg.br (Presenting)
Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, britaldo@csr.ufmg.br
Daniel Nepstad, Woods Hole Research Center, dnepstad@whrc.org
William Leles Costa, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, william@csr.ufmg.br

We have integrated into a computer platform - SimAmazonia-2 - a series of models, which simulate the various processes that describe Amazon landscape dynamics. SimAmazonia-2 includes a deforestation model responsive to public policies, migratory movements, infrastructure improvement, and cropland and cattle herd expansions, rent models of soybean crop and cattle raising, an economic model of logging, a fire risk component, and CARLUCC - a model that simulates flows and sinks of carbon within the forest and from the forest to the atmosphere in response to climate change and forest disturbance. All models run simultaneously, exchanging data among themselves and employing together, as input, over a hundred maps at 2x2 km2 raster resolution, each one composed of 2103x1561 cells. To cope with this complexity, we have developed a spatially explicit modeling environment called Dinamica-EGO - acronym for Environment for Geoprocessing Objects. The software holds a series of algorithms called functors. Each functor, performing an algebra map operator, can be sequenced to establish a data flow in the form of a graph. Through this graphical interface, one can create models by simply dragging and connecting functors via their ports, which represent connectors to types of data, such as maps, tables, matrices, mathematical expressions, and constants. Thus, models can be designed as a diagram where execution follows a data flow chain. This friendly interface allows for creative design of spatial models from the very simple to the very complex that are saved in a script language. As a result, Dinamica-EGO favors simplicity, flexibility, and performance, optimizing speed and computer resources, such as memory and parallel processing. Applications of SimAmazonia-2 involve the simulation of future deforestation across the Amazon basin, under a set of policy and economic scenarios, and the assessments of its impacts on habitat loss and fragmentation, fluvial regimes and regional and global climates, as well as the study of the feedbacks between climate change, agricultural expansion, and forest impoverishment due to increasing fire regimes under an warmer and drier Amazon climate. Other applications include the evaluation of the level of endangerment for protected areas, the logging potential of forest concessions, and the calculation of opportunity and marginal costs, taking into consideration an emergent carbon credit market for reduced deforestation.

Science Theme:  LC (Land Use and Land Cover Change)

Session:  2C: Regional Land Use Change

Presentation Type:  Oral (view presentation (1418 KB))

Abstract ID: 57

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