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Fire probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

Manoel Cardoso, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (INPE/CPTEC) – Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000 SP Brazil, mcardoso@cptec.inpe.br (Presenting)
Carlos Nobre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (INPE/CPTEC) – Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000 SP Brazil, carlos.nobre@inpe.br
Guillermo Obregon, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (INPE/CPTEC) – Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000 SP Brazil, obregon@cptec.inpe.br
Gilvan Sampaio, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (INPE/CPTEC) – Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000 SP Brazil, sampaio@cptec.inpe.br

Fire-activity models have several applications in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting similar remote-sensing input data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the results show best performance for the period from July to September, when most of satellite fire observations were detected in areas with relatively high probability of fire. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the fire dynamics detected by remote sensing, these new results are easier to apply than the results from previous fire-pixel models.

Science Theme:  LC (Land Use and Land Cover Change)

Session:  3C: Land Use and Fire

Presentation Type:  Oral

Abstract ID: 50

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