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Malaria and changing landscapes step one: malaria and precipitation patterns

Sarah Olson, Center for Sustainability & the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin – Madison, sholson1@wisc.edu (Presenting)
Laurent Durieux, , Research Institute for Development, Montpellier, France, Laurent.durieux@teledection.fr
Eric Elguero, , Research Institute for Development, Montpellier, France, Eric.Elguero@mpl.ird.fr
Jon Foley, Center for Sustainability & the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin – Madison, jfoley@wisc.edu
Ron Gagnon, Department of Population Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Ronald@biostat.wisc.edu
Jean-François Guegan, Research Institute for Development, Montpellier, France, JF.GUEGAN@mpl.ird.fr
Jonathan Patz, Center for Sustainability & the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin – Madison, patz@wisc.edu

According to the World Health Organization, 42% of malaria cases are “associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design”. This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at small scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. As the first step in understanding how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We apply the MARA/ARMA malaria climate suitability model in the Basin, and report its poor performance in predicting the observed cases of malaria. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence.

Science Theme:  LC (Land Use and Land Cover Change)

Presentation Type:  Poster

Abstract ID: 41

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