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Principal Investigators:

Richard E. Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina (US-PI)
Rosanna Manosalvas, EcoCiencia (SA-PI)
Stephen J. Walsh, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US-PI)

 

Abstract 2006:  Multi-Agent Models of Land Cover/Land Use Dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: Coupling Human & Natural Systems through Pattern-Process Relations and Spatial Simulations (View)

 

Investigation Duration:   01/2006 - 01/2008

 

LC-30 is a successor to investigation(s) LC-01.

 

Participants:

Alisson Barbieri, CEDEPLAR/UFMG
Richard E. Bilsborrow, US-PI, University of North Carolina
Laura Brewington, Universitiy of North Carolina
Christine Erlien, Department of Geography, University of North Carolina
Brian Frizzelle, Carolina Population Center - UNC
George P. Malanson, The University of Iowa
Rosanna Manosalvas, SA-PI, EcoCiencia
Amy McCleary, UNC-Chapel Hill
Carlos Mena, (1) University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, (2) Universidad San Francisco de Quito
Joseph P. Messina, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations
Patricia Polo, University of North Carolina
Julie P. Tuttle, UNC- Chapel Hill
Stephen J. Walsh, US-PI, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

 

Research Sites:

Ecuador

Training and Education Activities - Proposed:

A key part of this proposed NASA project will be to continue training and institutional capacity-building. Part of this will occur through collaboration with Francis Baquero of Ecociencia in the agent-based modeling, and part with the final project workshop in year 2, which will occur before the dissemination conference in Quito. Work with Ecociencia throughout the two years of this project will continue to involve document and technology transfer and education components. We hope that Ecuador will continue to be an eligible country to participate in the next round of UNC funding from the Fogarty Foundation at NIH (UNC submits another proposal for 5-years in early 2006), which would greatly facilitate continuing to bring young Ecuadorian scholars to UNC for coursework, research collaboration, and training. In this present project, we have budgeted for one student to be funded in both years 1 and 2 as a Graduate Research Assistant at project expense, pending acceptance into a UNC PhD program in Geography or another department which has students collaborating on the Ecuador projects, viz., City and Regional Planning, Ecology, Economics, Anthropology, and Biostatistics. This student will work on the agent-based models with us. A second doctoral student with strong quantitative skills in another department will also collaborate in this project on ABMs at no cost to the project, supported by CPC IGERT training funds. The Carolina Population Center is the top-rated academic population research center in the US, with excellent research facilities, including its superb library, computer programming support staff, statisticians, and its in-house Spatial Analysis Unit.

It should be noted that Ecociencia, although a research organization and not a university, has its own Scholarship Program for Conservation Research, with a fellowship competition for undergraduate students to provide them with fellowships of $2,500 to encourage high quality theses on biodiversity. Through its subcontract with UNC, we propose that Ecociencia will use resources from this proposal to support a thesis based on our Ecuador project data. To date, 39 students have been funded. Finally, Ecociencia senior investigators will continue to teach occasional classes at the top universities in Quito, as well as training workshops: over the past decade, Ecociencia has trained about 500 persons, including many policy-makers in the Ministry of Environment and NGOs, in 24-40-hour workshops on environmental issues. Research findings from this proposed project, including future scenarios and trajectories of change in the NEA from agent-based models, will fit well into some of these future workshops.

 

Training and Education Activities - Accomplished:

Currently none available.

 
 
 

Datasets/Posters Available:

Currently none available.

 

Publications:

Frizzelle BG, Walsh SJ, Mena CF, Erlien CM. (2005) Land Use Change Patterns of Colonists and Indigenous Groups in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: A Comparison of Landsat TM Spectral and Spatial Analyses. . (abstract)

Messina JP, Walsh SJ. (2005) Dynamic Spatial Simulation Modeling of the Population-Environment Matrix in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 32, 835-856. (abstract)

Bilsborrow RE. (2006) Overpopulation and sustainability. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 4, 160-161.

Malanson GP, Zeng Y, Walsh SJ. (2006) Complexity at Advancing Ecotones and Frontiers. Environment and Planning A, 38, 619-632.

Malanson GP, Zeng Y, Walsh SJ. (2006) Landscape Frontiers, Geography Frontiers: Lessons to be Learned. Professional Geographer, 58, 383-396.

Mena CF, Barbieri SJ, Walsh CM, Erlien FL, Holt FL, Bilsborrow RE. (2006) Pressure on the Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve: Development and Land Use/Cover Change in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. World Development, 34, 1831-1849.

Messina JP, Walsh SJ, Mena CF, Delamater PL. (2006) Land Tenure and Deforestation Patterns in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Conflicts in Land Conservation in Frontier Settings. Applied Geography, 26, 113-128.

Verburg P, Kok KP Jr. RGVA. Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change, in Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Processes and Global Impacts, edited by Lambin EaGH, pp. 117-135, Springer Publishing, 2006.

Walsh SJ. Feedbacks, in , edited by Robbins P, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2007.

Walsh SJ, Brown D, Messina JP, Mena CF. Complexity and Biogeography, in Handbook of Biogeography, 2007.

Walsh SJ, Shao Y. Geographic Information Science, in Encycopedia of Environment and Society, edited by Robbins P, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2007.

 

Matrix of Publications-Datasets:  more

 

Science Questions:

Land Cover and Land Use Change:

        LC-Q1 - What are the rates and mechanisms of forest conversion to agricultural land uses, and what is the relative importance of these land uses?
        LC-Q4 - What are plausible scenarios for future land cover change in Amaz˘nia?
 
 
 
 
 
 

Other Research Teams:

CD-01  -  CD-02  -  CD-03  -  CD-04  -  CD-05  -  CD-06  -  CD-07  -  CD-08  -  CD-09  -  
CD-10  -  CD-11  -  CD-12  -  CD-14  -  CD-15  -  CD-17  -  CD-18  -  CD-30  -  CD-31  -  
CD-32  -  CD-33  -  CD-34  -  CD-35  -  CD-36  -  CD-37  -  CD-40  -  CD-41  -  LC-01  -  
LC-02  -  LC-03  -  LC-04  -  LC-05  -  LC-06  -  LC-07  -  LC-08  -  LC-09  -  LC-10  -  
LC-11  -  LC-12  -  LC-13  -  LC-14  -  LC-15  -  LC-16  -  LC-21  -  LC-22  -  LC-23  -  
LC-24  -  LC-31  -  LC-32  -  LC-33  -  LC-34  -  LC-35  -  LC-36  -  LC-37  -  LC-38  -  
LC-39  -  ND-01  -  ND-02  -  ND-03  -  ND-04  -  ND-06  -  ND-07  -  ND-08  -  ND-09  -  
ND-10  -  ND-11  -  ND-30  -  ND-31  -  PC-30  -  TG-01  -  TG-02  -  TG-03  -  TG-04  -  
TG-05  -  TG-06  -  TG-07  -  TG-08  -  TG-09  -  TG-10  -  TG-30  -  TG-31  -  TG-32

 


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