How Resilient is the Hydrometerology of the Amazon Basin to Human Pressure?
Roni Avissar Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science - University of Miami (US-PI)
The study proposed here consists of two major tasks, to be accomplished within three years. Each task will last about 1.5 year and will overlap mostly during the second year of the project. The first task will focus on long-term mesoscale simulations forced by reanalysis data and observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that will explore the persistence, strength and magnitude of precipitation triggered by various levels of deforestation in the Amazon Basin. This research will be performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which will be evaluated as a regional climate model as part of this task. The simulations to be performed under the second task will be produced with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM forced with observed SSTs or with an interacting ocean. They will be used to explore the strength and magnitude of teleconnections between the Amazon Basin and remote locations for various degrees of deforestation under various climatological regimes. The precipitation derived from the simulations and observations produced under the first task will be used to calibrate the precipitation simulated in the Amazon Basin with the GCM, which does not resolve convection triggered by subrid-scale deforestation, but needs an accurate account of their impact to improve the simulation of teleconnections. Satellite products will be used to initialize both models and to evaluate their results.